Article Text
BOSTON. Dec 10, 1842. Dear Sir-Governer Lincoln, the collector of this eport, has furnished me with a copy of your letter to him of the 29th ultimo, asking for information to fur- nish grounds for forming an opinion of what will probably be the amount of accruing revenue, under the present tariff, for the half year ending 30th June, 1844. to which he has invited every attention and asked for a response upon the several points suggested. With this request I very readily comply.
The great difficulty in the case arises from the circumstance that the opinion to be formed must be made up during the presence of a revulsion in trade of a severe and general character, and must have reference of that revulsion, and the greater or less degree in which retu cing activity and prospe- ity shall promote general increased consumption, especially that of foreign commodities.
I have seen many of these revulsions in my day. and have paid a good deal of attention to their course and accompaniments-Their causes are somewhat various, and frequently involve great dif- ferences of opinion, but their course is generally pretty uniform. and, to an accurate observer, fur- nishes some data by which to judge when their termination may be expected, and in what condition they will leave the body politic. The most severe within my recollection was that of 1819, resulting from the change from a long continued depreciated paper curtency to a sound one, both in Europe and The United States Severe revulsions occurred in 1826 and 1829; a moderate one in 1832; an artifi- eal, and of course short, one in 1834. That of 18- 37 was excessively severe, growing ont of the wild overtrade of 1835-6, and. by its derangement of the currency, may be considered as intimately con- nected with the present state of things.
A revulsion shows its first symptoms in the rise of the foreign exchanges to the point which causes the export of specie ton degree which makes it necessary for the banks "to apply the screws" or in other words check their discoun's, according to the greater or less intensity of the eccasion, but to the point necessary to stop the outflow of specie, which constitutes their life blood. This produces a dis- tressing scarcity of money, a reduction of prices in stocks and all commodities, failures more or less numerous, a reduction in the amount of imports, -dul ness and stagnation in trade.
A violent pressure in the money market seldom continues to the commercial cities over three or four -months-I should say never so long 3 six. A very short time sutfices to check the export of specie, which, if the pressure is severe, soon begins to flow back by importation. Money hecomes plenty in the banks, but a great distrust of credit oxists; of course it can only be obtained on undoubted security.- The holder and more enterprising operators being. many of them, swept off the board, caution becomes the order of the day but, as money continues to become more and more plenty, prices gradually rise, operations in trade are successful, success inspires confidence, importations increase, and things resume their usual course. until a too rapid motion of the wheel brings on overtrade and ancther crisi, i should fix the term of a year as about the usual pe- riod of damushed importation, growing out of a vi- olent revulsion and as indicating a return of average activity in trade.
To apply these remarks to our present case. The tremendous revulsien of 1837 commenced in the month of March, and was so violent as to cause the suspension of the Banks, This changed in a great measure the usual course of events, and in truth greatly aggravated the usual evils of a revulsion.- New York and New England adopted the proper course, of reduction of the inflated circulating me- drum to the specie basis, and their banks actually resumed in April, 1838, and their trade resumed its usua! course.
The policy of the United States Bank, influen- cing the whole South and West, was different. Mr Biddle was opposed to resumption, and made no preparations for it, but, on the contrary, extended his operations. At the same time, in July, after the successful resumption in New York, under the pressure of public opinion, the bank undertook a resumption, all unprepared as it was. By the free use of its credit, then unbounded, the bank was en- abled to keep up a system of inflation through the whole South and West, under which trade revived to an unusual degree, under an art ficial system. which continued until October 1839, when the cre- dit of the bank had been so shaken that it broke down in irretrievable bankruptcy. The whole South and West went with it, and thus was produ- ced another paralyisis and revulsion of the severest kind.
This continued through the greater part of the year 1840; but in 1811 trade revived again to its fu 1 average extent, notwithstanding the deprecia ted state of the currency throughout the large por- tion of the country..
The early part of the year 1842, however, found the system of irredeemable bank paper coming to a close. The banks of Philadelphia and Baitumore resumed specie payments. In New Orleans a spe- cie currency was resumed, whilst nearly alt the banks in that city went by the board in one gene- ral crash.
In the mean time, Virginia, ard the whole South and West, with the exception of Alabama, have ban- ished the miserable currency of irredeemable pa- per, and established that of a legitimate and whole- some character. But this could not be done with out a crisis-a pressure in the money market and a paralysis in trade. It is the penalty inevitable from the adoption of this false system of miscalled relief. This sufficiently accounts for the stagna- tion of the last six of eight months, and the great consequent reduction of prices.
In the mean time it seems reasonable, to sup pose that this stagnation and depression has nearly reached its term. A large import of specie has in- ken place, and money has become exceeding abun- dant in all the commercial cities. This state of things Lever fails to set trade in motion, The goneral discredit in the interior, including their banks, has thus far retarded it, but cannot do so much longer,
The country is not in deht abroad. Large crops are in the process of finding a market, which, even at the present low prices, prepare the way for an increased consumption. A great check upon im- portation has existed for six months, and the storks of foreign goods are by no means excessive.
It is inevitable that a very considerable improve- ment in trade should take place during the first half the year 1843.
The importations, however, during this period